Virtualbox: guest using VPN with NAT configuration

If I have a host machine that doesn't use a VPN and I launch a guest VM and use a VPN inside it, what happens when using NAT networking mode? From my understading in NAT mode the host acts like a router, so basically the host will navigate as usual while the guest will have created a tunnel from itself to the vpn server, so if watching traffic from the gateway I'll see a clear traffic and a tunneled one, correct? Does this exfiltrate data? And from an external server POV, if I connect via the VM, I should only see the IP of the VPN and not the one of the gateway, right?

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